This changes everything

Many times before i have really thought that this was it, that i finally made it, and many times before it just blew away in seconds, but this time im 99,9% certain that i found my little golden eeg, what it really comes down to is to understand that there is so much money/volume getting matchet out there, and you only need such a small percentage of that to survive as a fulltime trader. Just think about it,,, how many times have you ever thought that you where the best trader in the world?,,, you just made 20 % off you bank on ONE race,,,WOW we have all been there,, i know i have. But what i have come to realize is that for my bank to double each mounth i only have to make approx 2,4 % of my bank on the whole day, and just think about it if there is approx 40 races aday, thats a 0,06 % per race... SO to bee straight ahead here,,, what my automated excel systems does is that i only profit 2,4 percent of my bank per day, recently decreased it from 5 to 2,4, just to bee sure,, most times my sheet reasches the 2,4 percentage in the first 1 to 3 races, but if it dosent it really dosent matter as there is approx 30 to 50 more races to win it back on... and my sheet have no emotions, so it NEVER makes a mistake. Here is a shot of my actually stakes and profits from my sheet, My bank should doulble each mounth, the blue line is where my profits hould bee, and the red is where it acually is, there are 2 gaps in the red line, and these are days where i have had somer tecnical problems with betfair and betangel, but these are solved now.

10 day p/l chart

its been little over a week since i last blogged, and here is my p/l for the last 10 days. it state a profit of 200 $ i 10 days witv a bank of 1000$, and please do remember that i just load up the markets in the morning, and then hit the play botton and then it all runs on automation, i then come back i the evening to see. There has been some bugs the a had to take care off, but i now think it its nothing less then perfekt, and i have reduced my stop on profit to 3% aday. If the system works perfektly over the next 6 mounths my bank would increse from 1000 $ to 204,503,36 $ OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

5% aday of my bank on full automation

Hey there who ever is reading, its beenn a while since i have updated my blog(3years) and i wasent really expecting to do so again. But these last couple of mounts there has been some really big changes to the way im trading. I found myself in the trap of boredom so i desidet to try and automate my trading strategy, i knew it wouldnt be easy, as what i have been used to make in excel was trying to create defferent types off charts and indicators from the BA template sheet, but after 5 years of trying and not really getting anywhere i decidet to make my trading full automatic, and boy im i in for a ride . It took me only a couple of weeks to get the sheet finished, and to fix all the bugs for it to work correct. The way it works is that i have implementet my strategy into it and all of the conditions for my strategy to fire bets into the markets, as im not trading manually i have set a 5%win of my bank pr day and then stop, and i cant believe how great it works, it has been running for 4 weeks now and my bank has increased by 5% every day since that, i just load up the markets in the morning, and come back later in the evening. A couple of days ago i just sat there watching the sheet trade all day, and removed my stop on 5% profit of my bank and at the end of the day it had made me a 29% of my bank, this is ofcourse a very high return, and i have decidet to only make the 5% aday just to bee on the safe side, which actually turns into alot of money just try to type 1000x1,05 into you calculater and hit the = 100 times

Heres a screen shot of my sheet, this is the contolboard as i like to call it, sometimes the sheet runs for hours, and somtimes it reaches its profit target after only 5 races, but i acually dont care if theres 30 or 50 races more to be traded that day, i have made my 5%, without moving as much as a finger or a single mouse click. of course this is not all the sheet your are watching but there are some things i want to keep a secret. ill wil try to update my blog every sunday with my P/L an maybe make some charts showing it, in the mean time take care. Should you have any qustions of any kind, you can find me on skype with the username diskokaj from denmark

My Trading Strategy

After several years on betfair, i have seen allot of races and a lot of graphs, and its very hard to see any patterns in any of the races, one 7f hcap favorite race can steam like mad and another 7f hcap can drift like hell, and it is so easy to get confused and frustrated, in the racing markets, as the markets always tend to go the against you.
Who haven't had the felling that all traders are out to get just you???? i mean when you just put in that lay bet, the odds starts steaming, and the same if you just put in a back bet, it will start to drift.

I found a way avoid this scenario, and i do think it could be the different between overall success, and failure.

The strategy is that you dont change your stake, you always use the same stake wether its odds under 2 or over 5 or whatever.Now if the odds is below 3 you should try to catch a big movement, and if its above 3 you should try to scalp the market.
Actually this is easier then it sounds, if you watch a few races you will see that the lower the odds, the more volatile the market is, and you are more likely to catch a nice swing trade. On higher odds the odds are more stabile and once you can see that there is allot of money match in the market dept., between two odds (ex. 4,7 and 4,8) and there is not been trade as much outside this range, you should go for it.

When the odds are lower you are more likely to catch a big move, and why is that so?
Ill tell you why, its because of the book %, the 2 or 3 favorite docent have to get that much support before the book% is affected.

lets say the second favs odds shortens from 4,7 to 4,6,that is one tick, then the 1 favs odds have to decrease from, lets say 2,6-2,7 and that is 5 ticks for such low odds, or from 1,7 to 1,8 and thats 10 ticks

I think alot off new traders lose money on high odds because they make their lay or back bet and then sit around waiting for it to swing up or down, instead of scalping it, and i also think alot of people are losing on low odds because they get out of the market if it moves against them a few ticks.

Conclusion

Scalp on high odds, fast in and fast out.

Swing trade on low odds, look at the big picture, and graphs, and dont get out too fast, just let in run into profit.

Putting it up like this just makes it all seem logical docent it.

Did it come overnight

Yesterday i posted here on my blog that i was back to my old system, due to failure over the past months, i spent all day trying to figure out what went wrong, and went throuhg all the forums and articles i could find to see if there were anythig that could explain why im alaways loosing when im not using my old system.
I found a post on betangel forum posted by Peter Web, where he explains that he prefer to go against the crowd, ass people tend to panic, when they see a trend coming to an end, and are trying to cut losses if the got on the trend too late, with that in mind i ones again went to the betfair war, and this picture below is the result.
I actually think that i have learnt more today then i hve the last 6 months

Back to basics

After months of trying to develop a new system, i have to conclude that it has been one big faliure. ive lost almost 2k trying to find new ways.

So now im back to my old system, i know this works, and im pretty sure i can reach between 2 and 4 k a month. The reason why i was trying to find new ways on betfair was that my old system is very stressfull to execute, but then again, all other traders may think the same about their ways off trading, the conclusion is that no matter how you do it, there is so mush competition, on the racing markets, that you have to develope an edge to make a profit, or have thousands in your account so that you can manipulate the markets.I think that my edge is that i have been trying to specialize in certain markets, and therefore im not effected by manipulaters trying to confuse the small fish, about wich way the odds will go .You will always find me at the markets where the betters money is stronger then the manipulaters.

The experiment

The last week or so, ive been trying to figure out how to set up a excel sheet, with different kinds of data from betangel.

Ive been trying to figure out how to set it up so that you dont miss out on any signals, and how to make sure that you have your eyes at the right place at the right time all the time.

And this is the result.

My Screen

I really cant figure out if im overdoing it with, graphs and indikators. I posted a screenshot of my screen(2 screens).On a third screen i have a live TV feed, so there is alot to keep an eye on.

When i try to look at the pictures on Adam heatcotes blog and other succesfull traders blogs, it seems that they only have the ladder and a live TV feed.

I would really like some comments on my screen setup, as im trying to find out if there is a easyier way. If you could tell me how yo have your screen set up it would be just perfeckt.

Please comment

Saved by the bell

Awfull trading yeserday, i dont know i it was the markeds that was fucked up, or if it was just me who was out tune, afterall i vent been trading for almost a week, as you can see from my screenshot i was down quite a bit, but the last race of the day saved my ass, and i finished 300 or so up.

These kind of ups and downs just confirms what i have been saying for a long time, you just have to win one more race every day then you loose, and you will have a profit.
the key to it all is very simple, but yet so hard to master,,,,,,

PATIENCE

Its just like a game of online poker, what seperates the fish from the sharks, the sharks dont tilt when they get a bad beat, because they know they are gonna get a monster hand very soon, the fish on the other hand gets very frustreted when they get a bad beat, and then they are in such a hurry to win it back that they starts to make bad desitions, and this is just what the sharks are waiting for.

Ready to roll

Finally my new screens have arrived, but not without trouble, as the online company have written the wrong adreess on delevery, this resultet in a 2 delay on delevery.

I havent been trading all week and tomorrow am going shopping for new furnitures, so im very likely not trading tomorrow either, Saturday im going to a big festival nearby, theres a lot of famous artist playing there.

Most likely ill first be trading again on monday, i have a very strick rule i must follow, and that is that if im trading, it have to be all day, and not just half of it, and this is because of the losing and the winning strikes that acurres in trading, and i know that if im trading all day i will most likely not come out of the day with red numbers.

Heres a picture of my new trading setup i now have 2 24 inch screens for trading, and 1 20 inch for watching the race live.

Yet another lovely day on Betfair

Today was like taking candy from children, it was all so predictable, and i got it all right.

I think im gonna take notes of what i could be winning if i green up on each race over a mounth or so, and compare it to what i actually have won by not greening up. If all the favorites today won i would have made over 2500, but ofcourse all favorites cant win.

Heres a screenshot of todays P/L

Why i dont green short price favorites

I think all traders green up all their races, its a way to prove to them self that they have the deciplin and proving that they dont get tempted not to green up,,,, but not me, if i made a nice profit, and i can see that people just keep throwing their money at the fav i will not green up.

The last 2 day im up almost 1600 and im expecting to hit 10 k sometime in the next 5-7 days, when the target is reached, my girlfreind has convinced me that we need new furnitures and that our daghter need a new playground in the garden.

In this video i won 610 as the the won

Low quality markets Sunday

Sunday was my worst day trading for long time, at one point i was down almost 1000 but at the end of the day i cut my losses to a total off minus 123 total, so i think thats ok.
Heres a video i shot of the first race today, was a ok trade but it just shows how trading can be on weekends, dont know why i even bother trading it at all.

We are on a roll

Cant beleive this is happening, finally my dream is comming true.
In 2 days ive made over 2900 on the exhanges.
Ive decided that when i reach 10 k of profit, which i expect to do in the next 5-7 days, im gonna raise my stakes from 1 k to 2 k.

The beginning

Today i have erased all posts from my blog, all the posts was about the learning proces of becoming a succesfull trader on betfair.

Im now getting consistent profts from trading the pre race markets on betfair, and im gonna use this blog purely as a diary.

Im gonna write about the ups and downs and post my P/l and upload videos of my trading to help other traders.

Aside from trading, im gonna put up some courses to Danish people who want to learn to trade sports on betfair.

I dont know what % of people who starts trading, actually make it, but i do think i have the answer as to why i made it, and that is that i dont scalp i dont trade 2 or 3 ticks, i try to look at the bigger picture of the prerace markeds and the way the betting has progressed, and when i think i have an idea of wich way the market will go, i back or lay with all i got, i then go for a very minimum of 5 big ones (lay at 4 back at 4.5) and more often then not much more, and at then end of the day i only have to have won one race more then i have lost, to make a nice profit.

The great thing about this strategy is that, if i have predicted that the marked will go one way and it dosent, i very rarely get out with red numbers.

Let me give you and example,

At a given race i have spotted that the 4 fav is getting alot of volume and the price is comming down, i now decide to lay the fav, at the current price , lets say odds 4, but then the very next second the 2 fav sky jumps from 4.7 to 9 and it just wont stop, this results in a steam on the 1 fav which i layed at 4 just a second ago, the price is now down to 3.5.

So the most natural thing a trader could do here is to close his position and take a loss, and try to win it back at the next race, But i wont do that, because ive have already seen the 4 fav steaming, and it seems to keep on doing that, so obevioes when a 4 fav is steaming the 1 fav isnt that strong, and the psykology of this is that if all the gamblers out there, who wanted to back the 1 fav is seeing that the 4 fav is getting alot of support, they vill start to think that maybe there is something wrong with the 1 fav, and they wont back it. now im now just waiting for the 1 fav to drift out to 4 again so i can close my position without a loss, and more often then not this will happen when the drifting 2 fav hits a resistent point.

Best of luck to all