After several years on betfair, i have seen allot of races and a lot of graphs, and its very hard to see any patterns in any of the races, one 7f hcap favorite race can steam like mad and another 7f hcap can drift like hell, and it is so easy to get confused and frustrated, in the racing markets, as the markets always tend to go the against you.
Who haven't had the felling that all traders are out to get just you???? i mean when you just put in that lay bet, the odds starts steaming, and the same if you just put in a back bet, it will start to drift.
I found a way avoid this scenario, and i do think it could be the different between overall success, and failure.
The strategy is that you dont change your stake, you always use the same stake wether its odds under 2 or over 5 or whatever.Now if the odds is below 3 you should try to catch a big movement, and if its above 3 you should try to scalp the market.
Actually this is easier then it sounds, if you watch a few races you will see that the lower the odds, the more volatile the market is, and you are more likely to catch a nice swing trade. On higher odds the odds are more stabile and once you can see that there is allot of money match in the market dept., between two odds (ex. 4,7 and 4,8) and there is not been trade as much outside this range, you should go for it.
When the odds are lower you are more likely to catch a big move, and why is that so?
Ill tell you why, its because of the book %, the 2 or 3 favorite docent have to get that much support before the book% is affected.
lets say the second favs odds shortens from 4,7 to 4,6,that is one tick, then the 1 favs odds have to decrease from, lets say 2,6-2,7 and that is 5 ticks for such low odds, or from 1,7 to 1,8 and thats 10 ticks
I think alot off new traders lose money on high odds because they make their lay or back bet and then sit around waiting for it to swing up or down, instead of scalping it, and i also think alot of people are losing on low odds because they get out of the market if it moves against them a few ticks.
Conclusion
Scalp on high odds, fast in and fast out.
Swing trade on low odds, look at the big picture, and graphs, and dont get out too fast, just let in run into profit.
Putting it up like this just makes it all seem logical docent it.
