fredag den 11. juni 2010

The beginning

Today i have erased all posts from my blog, all the posts was about the learning proces of becoming a succesfull trader on betfair.
Im now getting consistent profts from trading the pre race markets on betfair, and im gonna use this blog purely as a diary.
Im gonna write about the ups and downs and post my P/l and upload videos of my trading to help other traders.
Aside from trading, im gonna put up some courses to Danish people who want to learn to trade sports on betfair.

I dont know what % of people who starts trading, actually make it, but i do think i have the answer as to why i made it, and that is that i dont scalp i dont trade 2 or 3 ticks, i try to look at the bigger picture of the prerace markeds and the way the betting has progressed, and when i think i have an idea of wich way the market will go, i back or lay with all i got, i then go for a very minimum of 5 big ones (lay at 4 back at 4.5) and more often then not much more, and at then end of the day i only have to have won one race more then i have lost, to make a nice profit.
The great thing about this strategy is that, if i have predicted that the marked will go one way and it dosent, i very rarely get out with red numbers.
Let me give you and example,

At a given race i have spotted that the 4 fav is getting alot of volume and the price is comming down, i now decide to lay the fav, at the current price , lets say odds 4, but then the very next second the 2 fav sky jumps from 4.7 to 9 and it just wont stop, this results in a steam on the 1 fav which i layed at 4 just a second ago, the price is now down to 3.5.
So the most natural thing a trader could do here is to close his position and take a loss, and try to win it back at the next race, But i wont do that, because ive have already seen the 4 fav steaming, and it seems to keep on doing that, so obevioes when a 4 fav is steaming the 1 fav isnt that strong, and the psykology of this is that if all the gamblers out there, who wanted to back the 1 fav is seeing that the 4 fav is getting alot of support, they vill start to think that maybe there is something wrong with the 1 fav, and they wont back it. now im now just waiting for the 1 fav to drift out to 4 again so i can close my position without a loss, and more often then not this will happen when the drifting 2 fav hits a resistent point.

Best of luck to all

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